US defense report shows just how a dangerous and dynamic world we will be facing

published Jan 28, 2009 11:10   by admin ( last modified Jan 28, 2009 11:10 )

A report (pdf)  from United States Joint Forces Command shows just what a dynamic, to not say chaotic world we have been and will be living in with regards to security and international politics.

Take a look at this list from the report, just how the balance of power has changed during the 1900s per decade:

 

  • 1900 If you had been a strategic analyst for the world’s leading power, you would have
    been British, looking warily at Britain’s age old enemy: France.
  • 1910 You would now be allied with France, and the enemy would now be Germany
  • 1920 Britain and its allies had won World War I, but now the British found themselves
    engaged in a naval race with its former allies the United States and Japan.
  • 1930 For the British, naval limitation treaties were in place, the Great Depression had
    started and defense planning for the next five years assumed a “ten year” rule -- no
    war in ten years. British planners posited the main threats to the Empire as the
    Soviet Union and Japan, while Germany and Italy were either friendly or no threat.
  • 1936 A British planner would now posit three great threats: Italy, Japan, and the worst, a
    resurgent Germany, while little help could be expected from the United States.
  • 1940 The collapse of France in June left Britain alone in a seemingly hopeless war with
    Germany and Italy with a Japanese threat looming in the Pacific. America had
    only recently begun to scramble to rearm its military forces.
  • 1950 The United States was now the world’s greatest power, the atomic age had
    dawned, and a “police action” began in June in Korea that was to kill over 36,500
    Americans, 58,000 South Koreans, nearly 3,000 Allied soldiers, 215,000 North
    Koreans, 400,000 Chinese, and 2,000,000 Korean civilians before a cease-fire
    brought an end to the fighting in 1953. The main opponent in the conflict would be
    China, America’s ally in the war against Japan.
  • 1960 Politicians in the United States were focusing on a missile gap that did not exist;
    massive retaliation would soon give way to flexible response, while a small
    insurgency in South Vietnam hardly drew American attention.
  • 1970 The United States was beginning to withdraw from Vietnam, its military forces in
    shambles. The Soviet Union had just crushed incipient rebellion in the Warsaw
    Pact. Détente between the Soviets and Americans had begun, while the Chinese
    were waiting in the wing to create an informal alliance with the United States.
  • 1980 The Soviets had just invaded Afghanistan, while a theocratic revolution in Iran
    had overthrown the Shah’s regime. “Desert One” -- an attempt to free American
    hostages in Iran -- ended in a humiliating failure, another indication of what
    pundits were calling “the hollow force.” America was the greatest creditor nation
    the world had ever seen.
  • 1990 The Soviet Union collapses. The supposedly hollow force shreds the vaunted Iraqi
    Army in less than 100 hours. The United States had become the world’s greatest
    debtor nation. No one outside of the Department of Defense has heard of the
    internet.
  • 2000 Warsaw is the capital of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nation.
    Terrorism is emerging as America’s greatest threat. Biotechnology, robotics,
    nanotechnology, HD energy, etc. are advancing so fast they are beyond forecasting
  • 2010 Take the above and plan accordingly! What will be the disruptions of the next 25
    years?