Forget intent when analyzing Russia

Ability, opportunity and intent is a triad used for assessing if someone is a threat to you. With Russia, strike out watching for intent.

It is impossible to know the intent due to the Russian regime playing games, but also because the Russian regime is truly unstable. Pretty much any behavior or intent can manifest itself - including cruel or bizarre ones - depending on the outcome of power struggles and of outright mistakes.

Furthermore many of the things Russia says it wants to achieve would be of no material importance to it and would likely not make it happier.

Instead, focus on opportunity. With a firm policy response, consisting both of military, diplomatic and economic means, opportunities for destabilizing Europe or for that matter Russia, will be scarce.