Whodunit problems

Sometimes you feel the need to pass judgement on a problem: You look at the facts, and reach a conclusion. But later another piece of fact turns up, or a previously asserted fact turns out to be false and everything gets turned upside down and you realise you were completely wrong. In short you are faced with a problem where what the apparent solution is changes, sometimes several times, as more information is known.

I call such problems whodunit problems, after crime stories where it is not clear until the very last page who actually did the crime.

The reasons why can be varied: It may be a war situation where a lot of disinformation is bandied about or it can be a problem where you need a heck of a lot more information than you previously thought in order to pass a correct judgement, or it might be a problem whose outcome seems pretty much random. It may be as simple as a leading question or a propaganda piece that sets you off in the wrong direction.